New Delhi, Apr 24 (UNI) It will be a below normal monsoon in the country this year, the Indian Meteorological Department today said in its long range forecast for rainfall during the South West Monsoon which said India would receive about 93 per cent of the average rainfall.
The situation, however, was not as alarming as in the year 2002 when the country received just 81 per cent of the normal level, thus causing a drought in several parts of the country, the IMD director general B Lal told reporters here.
''There is no cause for alarm,'' he said adding that the probability for the monsoon season rainfall over the country being deficient was only 22 per cent.
The IMD's claims for "no cause for alarm" notwithsanding, the fact that the probability level of the country recieving deficient rainfall is the highest in the last three years is enough to send alarm bells ringing.
Infact, in IMD's last year's forecast, it predicted a four per cent chance of the South West Monsoon rainfall being deficient.
As per the IMD's long range forecast for the South West monsoon season, the rainfall in the country as a whole was likely to be 93 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus five per cent, which means it would be below normal as per the categorisation of the IMD.
According to the categorisation of the Meteorological Department, any rainfall in the range of 90 to 98 per cent of the LPA is considered to be below normal while rainfall less than 90 per cent of the LPA comes under the deficient category.
Estimates suggest that the probability for the South West Monsoon season rainfall over the country being deficient (below 90 per cent of LPA) is 22 per cent, the highest in the last three years.
However, the IMD director general said that there was no cause for worry as the long range forecasts by the Meteorological Department had been accurate in the past.
In this context, he said that last year the IMD had, in its long range forecast for the monsoon, predicted that the rainfall during the monsoon season (June-September) would be 98 per cent of the LPA. As it turned out, the rainfall in the country as a whole was 99 per cent of the LPA.
''Only three meteorological subdivisions received deficient rainfall,''he said.
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The situation, however, was not as alarming as in the year 2002 when the country received just 81 per cent of the normal level, thus causing a drought in several parts of the country, the IMD director general B Lal told reporters here.
''There is no cause for alarm,'' he said adding that the probability for the monsoon season rainfall over the country being deficient was only 22 per cent.
The IMD's claims for "no cause for alarm" notwithsanding, the fact that the probability level of the country recieving deficient rainfall is the highest in the last three years is enough to send alarm bells ringing.
Infact, in IMD's last year's forecast, it predicted a four per cent chance of the South West Monsoon rainfall being deficient.
As per the IMD's long range forecast for the South West monsoon season, the rainfall in the country as a whole was likely to be 93 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus five per cent, which means it would be below normal as per the categorisation of the IMD.
According to the categorisation of the Meteorological Department, any rainfall in the range of 90 to 98 per cent of the LPA is considered to be below normal while rainfall less than 90 per cent of the LPA comes under the deficient category.
Estimates suggest that the probability for the South West Monsoon season rainfall over the country being deficient (below 90 per cent of LPA) is 22 per cent, the highest in the last three years.
However, the IMD director general said that there was no cause for worry as the long range forecasts by the Meteorological Department had been accurate in the past.
In this context, he said that last year the IMD had, in its long range forecast for the monsoon, predicted that the rainfall during the monsoon season (June-September) would be 98 per cent of the LPA. As it turned out, the rainfall in the country as a whole was 99 per cent of the LPA.
''Only three meteorological subdivisions received deficient rainfall,''he said.
More UNI AR MA VP1930
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